Growth in the building materials market has stalled and is not expected to recover before mid-2026, according to the latest Builders Merchants Federation (BMF) data.
The BMF’s Winter Forecast downgraded its annual sales growth projection for 2025 from 2.5 per cent to 1.4 per cent, citing a sharp slowdown in the second half of the year.
It also lowered its 2026 growth forecast from 3.1 per cent to 2.3 per cent.
The forecast, compiled using data from the Builders Merchants Building Index, pointed to subdued GDP growth of 0.1 per cent, falling consumer confidence and a housing market slowdown as key headwinds.
A recovery in early 2026 now depends on intervention, according to BMF chief executive John Newcomb.
The forecast includes a lower-bound growth estimate of 1.2 per cent and a best-case scenario of 3.7 per cent, which the BMF said would require direct government stimulus in areas such as housebuilding and domestic repair, maintenance and improvement (RMI).
Newcomb said the housing slowdown in the third quarter of 2025 had stalled the tentative growth seen in the first half of the year.
“Housebuilders adopted a cautious approach ahead of the Autumn Budget, which ultimately fell short of delivering the stimulus required to reignite the housing market,” he said.
He added that further government intervention was needed to revive sales in both the new-build and RMI sectors.
Measures proposed by the BMF include incentives for first-time buyers, action on brownfield land, publication of the delayed Warm Homes Plan and Future Homes Standard, and full delivery of the Social and Affordable Housing Programme.
Source: BMF announcement
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